Don't write oil's 'obituary', IEA says in long-term demand forecast

Don't write oil's 'obituary', IEA says in long-term demand forecast

Don't write oil's 'obituary', IEA says in long-term demand forecast

Muscat: Crude oil will remain the world's largest source of energy over the next two decades, despite the increasing importance of renewable, said the latest of the Opec World Oil Outlook.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for December delivery fell dropped 1.15% to $55.06 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, edged down 0.02% to $61.41 a barrel.

"Crude prices dropped dramatically after the IEA forecast a gloomy outlook for the near future".

The price falls mean crude prices are now down by around 5% since hitting 2015 highs last week, ending a 40% rally between June and early November.

Crude oil stocks in the USA were seen down 2.850 million barrels, while distillates were expected to post a drop of 1.775 million barrels and gasoline inventories expected down 1.025 million barrels.

The Paris-based IEA revised demand growth down by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2017 and 2018, for an increase of around 1.5m bpd this year, to 97.7m bpd, and 1.3m next, to 98.9m bpd, which could push the market back into a surplus in the first half of next year.

The report projects that by 2025, oil production in America will match that of Saudi Arabia, and by 2030, it will be exporting 30m barrels of oil and daily - 50% more than the single year yield of any other country in history.

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"Using a scenario whereby current levels of OPEC production are maintained, the oil market faces a hard challenge in 1Q18 with supply expected to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd followed by another, smaller, surplus of 200,000 bpd in 2Q18", the agency said.

By the mid-2020s, the USA is projected to become the world's largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade, said IEA.

The IEA report countered the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), which just a day earlier said 2018 would see a strong rise in oil demand. On the supply side, rising United States output also pressured prices.

Analysts said rising US stockpile combined with downbeat global demand outlook renewed investors' concern about lingering global glut.

"It's started to look like there's a little bit too much momentum, and the quality of the buyer coming into the market at the $56 to $57 level wasn't the smartest crude oil money", said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Seaport Global Securities in Charlotte.

Opec has yet to show it has convinced Russian Federation, one of its partners in the deal, that a decision to prolong output cuts is needed when the group meets in Vienna later this month.

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