Crude Oil Inventories Decline; Supply at 2018 Peak: IEA

Crude Oil Inventories Decline; Supply at 2018 Peak: IEA

Crude Oil Inventories Decline; Supply at 2018 Peak: IEA

Another cap on prices has been soaring US oil production, which has risen by 16 percent since mid-2016 to 9.78 million barrels per day, the highest since the early 1970s and close to levels from top producers Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia.

The cartel said in its monthly report, released Wednesday, supply from non-OPEC producers should grow by 999,000 BPD next year.

"Going into the first quarter of 2018, our balances imply that global oil stocks will increase by 300,000 bpd, assuming stable Opec crude production of 32.5 million bpd", the IEA said.

November's OPEC reference basket jumped almost 10%, to average $60.74 a barrel, which is the highest level since June 2015.

According to the report, "Expansion in the transportation sector is expected to provide the bulk of oil demand growth".

Brent crude futures, the worldwide benchmark for oil prices, were at $62.79 a barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.6 percent from their last close.

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China imported 7.3 million barrels per day in October, a drop of 19% or 1.7 million barrels per day, the biggest monthly drop since October 2016. Venezuela's troubled industry suffered further production losses, the U.A.E. belatedly stepped up efforts to deliver its pledged cutbacks and Saudi Arabia cut deeper than required.

Bloomberg estimated that this could remove a further 5.5 million barrels to 13 million barrels from the market by the time the repairs are complete.

Yet the stronger outlook for supplies elsewhere is blunting the impact of OPEC's strategy.

OPEC revised its estimate for U.S. oil output growth for 2018 to 1.05 million bpd, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its growth forecast to 780,000 bpd.

Crude oil producers outside OPEC should reach an average output of 58.81 MMBPD in 2018. American shale explorers, who grew more efficient during the industry's three-year downturn, are locking in future revenues as USA prices near $60 a barrel, potentially readying for a new surge in drilling. For 2018 the IEA also reiterated its prior forecast for growth of 1.3 million barrels a day (1.4%) to a total of 98.9 million.

Speaking at a forum in China, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, also pointed to the uncertainties concerning the future of the USA tight oil supply, "with technology, economics and geology playing critical roles".

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